Republican's Chances of Being in the White House - 2008 Election

I created this graph that tracks the Republican Party's likelihood of winning the the 2008 Presidential election. The odds were taken from the daily closing price in the Iowa Electronic Markets run by the University of Iowa. I compared that to the closing price of the S&P 500 index (SPX) from January 1st, 2008 t0 November 3rd, 2008.

It's really simple. McCain didn't lose the election for all the hypothesized reasons, such as "the media is in the tank for Obama", or "Sarah Palin", or "the energized youth vote", or, "Obama's superior 'ground game'", or, "the African American turnout", or "Obama's record fund-raising", etc.

I'm sure all these reasons contributed in one way or another.

This graph goes all the way back to January 1st. Before the Iowa caucuses, before the New Hampshire primaries, before Super Tuesday, before Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee, before McCain became the presumptive Republican nominee.

The reason John McCain lost is simple - "It's the Economy, Stupid!"